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the information Figure: Chinese F -15 aircraft carrier.

original title of the

: Wang Jisi: why China’s international environment tends to serious

international pattern of

“Dongsheng West down, but China’s international environment did not improve

comprehensive report of the Global Times] U.S. financial turmoil in 2008 caused the most serious global financial crisis since the 1930s, pierced the bubble economy of many countries. Europe still mired in the sovereign debt crisis. Fukushima, 2011, earthquake and nuclear accidents, the Japanese economy even worse. Many people are now keen to talk about “post-American” multi-polar world, the haze of a “unipolar world” seems to have vanished.

2011, Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, Chao Chu, Western enemies Gaddafi also died in the war. However, from early 2011 began to come and go the Middle East mess, and not how much joy the grounds to the West. At the same time, the strength of the BRIC countries “increased cooperation and coordination in global affairs has become another important trend of the media attention. China’s economic strength and military power continues to grow, the next 10 years, the overall strength of the BRIC countries is expected to further enhance. In addition, Indonesia, Vietnam, Turkey and many other emerging market countries in a period of rising economic strength. Latin American integration has entered a new stage. These developing countries as a group, its strength with the current international political and economic order will have a greater contradiction to effectively challenge the dominant position of developed countries.

“Dongsheng West down, China’s international strategic environment should be greatly improved, because of international pressure by basically from the West, through the power comes more from the development countries. But the fact is that the international environment felt by the Chinese people tend to severe. Why is there the contrast between the international environment favorable global balance of power “and” deterioration “? Why the rising power of China, but can not bring about the gradual improvement of China’s external environment?

China’s foreign policy measures will have long lagged behind public expectations

First, the international financial crisis is not only a heavy blow to the Western economies, it also undermines the emerging powers. In the era of globalization, prosperity or a loss for both. The case of China, the shrinking market of the Western countries and financial institutions, credit decline, increased exports and investment difficulties. Seen in this light, the economy on the West down “and” sun “is not a causal relationship. China’s international economic environment is not optimistic in the next few years.

Secondly, domestic strategies critic made the logical starting point of analysis, traditionally countries (especially the major powers), the end result is the balance of power between the major powers and mutual relations. The disadvantage of this analytical framework is easy to ignore the outside world in some countries, the national trend. For example, a serious imbalance in the development of the world’s population, developed and aging problems, while the population of South Asia, the Middle East, Africa is still rapid expansion. Thus, the migration of the global population is difficult to stop, the intensification of the contradictions of the new immigrants with the indigenous people of even lead to political conflict. Health, law and order, education, transportation, environmental protection, water and electricity supply bottlenecks in large-scale urbanization is increasingly narrow. The imbalance in income distribution in the process of globalization and the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen. The continued deterioration of the global ecological environment. The help of new techniques, especially the challenges of network media, individuals and small groups of countries and the international community is in the ascendant. China adheres to its own path of development, diversity in mode of development of all countries at the same time, the concept of individual freedom, equality, human rights and democracy on a global scale more popular. These are Chinese international strategic environment, the challenges can not be ignored.

Third, the power of the BRIC countries increased undoubtedly a partial response to Western pressure facing China. However, the vast majority of emerging countries, China has a considerable gap in the national interest and ideology. When the Chinese territorial sovereignty disputes with neighboring countries, when the prominent contradictions in China with the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang and human rights, religion, the RMB exchange rate, it is difficult to get clear support for these countries, some countries even is to dispute the countries concerned. Therefore, the role of developing countries “group rise” to enhance China’s status in the world, to change the external image and political environment is limited.

fourth, with the growth of China’s position of strength, the “security dilemma” that they face more serious. Process for their own safety and to enhance national defense strength, neighboring countries and the United States is not only suspected of the intention of China’s peaceful development, and strengthen preventive measures against China, to coordinate strategy toward China, pose a greater safety pressure on China. Thus, with the national strength is weak compared to the period, some of the Chinese people had a greater sense of insecurity, more anxiety, the deeper the “victim complex”. Public a common question: “Why do powerful national strength, national security has been more erosion?” The answer to this question is generally two, one is not big enough investment in national defense, and second, neighboring countries and the United States the policy is too weak. This “security dilemma” in the near future, difficult to relief, the real strength of China in its external relations, policy instruments and strategic planning, will continue to lag behind the expectations of the domestic public.

strong domestic negative factors have offset

in recent years, China’s foreign strategy and diplomatic posture is part of the domestic public as “too weak”. In fact, the objective point of view, the Chinese foreign policy than in the past more aggressive, but also a greater emphasis on the principle of maintaining the core national interests, so that a considerable number of international public opinion as a “tough”. China’s overseas investment and foreign trade, from quantity to quality has improved considerably. Almost every corner in the world can see traces of the shadow of the Chinese citizens and Chinese business practices. The Chinese government to strengthen the construction of national cultural soft power, exponentially increasing the financial resources, intellectual resources into. China’s high-level diplomacy and public diplomacy is increasingly active, to safeguard China’s rights and interests of overseas operations increased significantly. However, the overall image of China in the outside world but still not satisfactory. The reason mainly lies in the constraints of the domestic variety of negative phenomena and instability. For example, Tibet, Xinjiang region since 2008, serious violence, mass incidents triggered by domestic social contradictions, there is concern product quality, food safety, the level of civic virtue and the ecological environment, the frequent occurrence of cases of corruption and senior officials disciplinary cases, individual Chinese citizens to foreign embassies and consulates stranded in an isolated incident of “refuge” and the lag effect, all the government had to spend a lot of political and diplomatic resources to be addressed. Some departments in the Chinese view, all of these domestic issues are meddling and interference of foreign hostile forces. However, to withstand the loss of China’s reputation and interests. Strengthen the coordination of various departments of the Chinese government to improve government efficiency and transparency, the establishment of a more perfect system of accountability and punish corruption, and improve the quality of civic culture, and are properly deal with the basic conditions for external relations, but these tasks can not promote economic growth as the immediate.

If the above analysis is basically valid, then the international challenges encountered by China in the next few years will tend to be severe. Strengthen diplomatic, defense, propaganda, foreign economic work is important, but the success of addressing international challenges, the key lies in the ability to accelerate the pace of domestic reforms, and properly handle the domestic political, economic, and social problems. A very important point is to let the public in a comprehensive and objective understanding of the international domestic situations and their relationship. ▲ (The writer is president of the Institute of International Relations, Peking University. This article is forthcoming China International Strategic Review 2012 “Foreword part)