on the 24th, the central bank released data show that in March this year, China’s new foreign exchange of 124.6 billion yuan, 25.1 billion yuan in February, showing a certain degree of recovery growth, but still sharply lower at the level of the same period last year. Analysts pointed out that in the current macroeconomic still waiting for a soft landing, still phased tight market funds face doubts about the background of the foreign exchange to restore growth continued, in order to safeguard the liquidity in the long period of moderately abundant, lowering quasi-still is necessary, prudent monetary policy options.
funds face worry disappeared
financial deposit growth, national commercial banks and other major financial institutions, deposits the loss of pressure and other negative factors, the overall funding of the inter-bank market interest rates since April was significantly higher than in March. WIND data show that the key interest rate indicator – weighted average interest rate of 7 days of pledge repo since April, most of the time running at 3.80 percent front-line, significantly higher than the March 3%, run the central level. As of April 25, R007-weighted average interest rate reported 3.9271%, close to 4% of the integer points. At the same time, the index of the seven days of SHIBOR, 7 days of interbank lending rate upward momentum, and higher than the overall level of interest rates in March.
Analysts pointed out that, subject to credit to maintain a high scale, the second quarter of fiscal deposits turned over to the open market maturity in 56 months, small amount of money, foreign exchange growth to support the dynamics is limited, and other factors the impact of easing the situation of pre-capital side is still facing a number of negative factors test. On the other hand, due to the constraints of the total of funds, the recent central bank open market for four consecutive weeks of net invested capital mobility rush to the rescue effect is not very significant. In this context, the market capital to keep it easy for too long, there are still some worries.
view is that of
Hai Tong Securities, Bohai Securities and other institutions, the central bank over the past few weeks in the open market net invested funds, money market interest rates has yet to see effective downstream, to reflect the ultra-Chu rate of commercial banks is still under pressure. The amount of money due to the open market will begin to come down to the end of funding is once again under pressure, combined with the central bank’s recent remarks, do not rule out re-enabled the possibility of reverse repurchase. Of credit in the context of the current macroeconomic still waiting for a soft landing, in order to continue to provide support, further reduced deposit prospective rate will be the necessary means.
The liquidity to relax quasi-power still down
on the 24th, the central bank released data show that in March this year, China’s new foreign exchange of 124.6 billion yuan, 25.1 billion yuan in February, showing a certain degree of recovery growth. OCBC Bank analyst Xie Dongming, March foreign exchange rebounded sharply compared to February, but still lower than the 231.6 billion yuan last year, the average monthly increase. At the same time this year, a quarter of foreign exchange is an increase of 290.62 billion yuan, much lower than the same period last year of 1.124 trillion yuan of new foreign exchange, which shows the pressure is reduced capital inflows. In this context, the foreign exchange rate of increase slowed sharply, the central bank may also mean that China still has space to cut the deposit reserve ratio, Given the maturity of central bank bills have fallen sharply in May and June, does not rule out further in May lowered deposit reserve ratio may be.
Industrial Bank chief economist Lu political commissar, said in mid-March to late since the NDF (Overseas non-deliverable forward foreign exchange transactions) market for the depreciation of the renminbi is expected to renewed, the actual turnover of RMB prices consistently lower than the central bank central parity obvious devaluation of HK $ 300 in late May to early April, the VIX (volatility) index shows that risk aversion is another sign of strength, were to add the amount of foreign exchange means that April may be less. Thus, although the March foreign exchange higher than expected, but the possibility of very large foreign exchange again in April dropped to low. In this context, in April lowered the reserve ratio of the expected failure to achieve, in May, still down 0.5 percent reserve ratio, in order to maintain liquidity neutral and slightly loose.
In addition, the new foreign exchange rings for March increased by the number of brokerage firms also generally agreed that this would hardly be kept quasi-does not continue down the reason. SW pointed out that the March CPI although the rebound, but do not change the downward trend, so the new foreign exchange is low and slow down the inflationary pressures will continue to cut the reserve ratio and interest rate cut open the policy space.
Finance Channel _ Xinhua