the People’s Bank of China announced on the 12th March this year, RMB loans increased 1.01 trillion yuan, up by more than 332 billion yuan. Compared with yuan loans added 710.7 billion yuan in February compared to March, the new credit substantially more than market expectations. The industry believes that the market liquidity is improving, the preset fine-tuning of monetary policy shows the relevance and flexibility.
The obvious pick-up in new loans in March was mainly postganglionic business started to increase, clear policy of the government financing platform and the first mortgage interest rates loose a certain role in boosting the credit growth. “ Center for Financial Research Fellow E Yongjian, banks tend to make full use of the credit intensity of the end of the quarter increased pressure for growth performance and quarterly assessment lines of credit. And by the end of the quarter the banks to increase deposits absorption, the decentralization of fiscal deposits and other factors, a substantial increase in bank deposits, loan ratio fell to result in bank credit supply capacity significantly enhanced.
From a structural point of view, the new still short-term corporate loans to new long-term loans of the public is still not high, a further decline in the proportion of total new loans in March, combined with the new scale of bill financing further expand from last month show that the future earnings expected to has not significantly changed, not willing to expand investment, no significant increase in the effective demand for credit. The real estate market has warmed up, the volume has picked up the impact of the month to add to the long-term loans of households rebounded last month. Meanwhile, the new short-term loans of the household from the previous month has increased significantly, indicating that faster growth in other consumer loans.
E Yongjian, loan growth picked up, a substantial increase in bank deposits, the decentralization of fiscal deposits as well as financial capital back into the influence of multiple factors, money supply growth picked up in March. “But the recovery rate of M1 growth rate is small, the difference between M2 and M1 to further expand the growth of corporate demand is still low, indicating that business activity is not strong.” E Yongjian said.
the same time, March RMB deposit a substantial increase in one-month increase up to the highest level in history, the main absorption of efforts to increase the deposit with the bank end of the quarter, a large number of financial funds expire the end of the quarter into related to deposits. From a structural point of view, mainly, household deposits increased by more new corporate deposits from the previous month declined further validate the maturity to drive deposit growth in financial capital end of the quarter point of view. Meanwhile, the stock market downturn, the stock market flow of capital, savings deposits may also be one of the factors. March fiscal deposits seasonal decrease was mainly because the end of the quarter more fiscal spending.
Standard Chartered Bank (microblogging), Li Wei, economic analysts also believe that new credit in March rebound than the market expected a certain extent, explain, funds support the position of the real economy has improved. But he also said that a quarter of the overall credit growth and no more than previously expected, and therefore can not show that the economic uptrend has been established.
can be seen that combination of import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 10, in March of this year, the export situation is still grim, both import and export growth down to single digits, the industry trend of declining growth rate is expected to still will continue.
In this regard, the first quarter of this year, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has stressed that the central bank will strive to guide and promote the credit structure optimization, increase support to key areas of socio-economic and weaknesses. Guide financial institutions to improve the level of financial services to better support the development of the real economy.
In addition, previously published data from the National Bureau of Statistics can be seen, experienced a large drop in February, March CPI experiencing a shock rebound trend. Is not difficult to see, and long-term inflationary pressures still exist. Bank of Communications, Center for Financial Research Fellow Wang Yuwen, said that early tightening of monetary policy on prices is the drop-down effects may appear in the first half of this year, taking into account the inflation pressure has not diminished, the future possibility of significant relaxation of monetary policy is not large.the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee
previously held a quarterly meeting pointed out that the continued implementation of prudent monetary policy, and further enhance the policy relevance, flexibility and forward-looking, the total is modest, prudent and flexible requirements, the integrated use of multiple monetary policy tools to guide the steady and moderate growth of monetary credit to maintain a reasonable scale of financing.
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