on April 9, the original title: China’s March CPI rebounded to affect the inflation downward trend the macro policy remains prudent to relax

China prices rose unexpectedly rebounded in March, you may just let inflation drop to more gentle cycle. With the decline of the consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year increase in the middle of the year, the central bank is expected in the second quarter cut the deposit reserve ratio, and the possibility of a rate cut is very small.

China National Bureau of Statistics released on the 9th March CPI rose 3.6 percent, higher than 3.3% of the value in the Reuters survey; rose 0.2 percent, also higher than the value of 0.0% of the survey; the month industrial producer prices index (PPI) year-on-year decline of 0.3 percent, up by 0.3%.

“We expect that CPI will come down gradually in the second quarter of this year fall in the range of 2.9 to 3.5% in this comfort zone, if necessary, China will further the introduction of monetary stimulus. Nevertheless, we expect interest rate cuts the possibility is still very low. “said OCBC Bank economist Xie Dongming.

a quarter CPI increase of 3.8 percent, below the government set the annual inflation control target of 4%.

Shanghai Securities, said this year should beware of inflation to deflation, conversion, and is currently in the transition period. Industrial prices deflation, consumer goods of food items and other short-term commodity supply, although higher than in March by a significant rebound, but as the weather gets warmer, the downward trend of food prices than the future or will drop substantially.

onions to the money prices of vegetables rose sharply, led to price pressure rebound in March most important short-term factors. Analysts believe that with the warmer weather, fresh vegetable prices have come down gradually, food accounted for a larger meat prices due to supply stable, stable and little decrease for the latter CPI stability provide strong conditions.

March CPI rebounded slightly, or the Chinese central bank cautious on monetary policy. However, the PPI fell, analysts hope will be further fine-tuning of macroeconomic policy.

Zhejiang Securities macroeconomic analysis Lei Guo is expected that the policy will remain prudent to relax the trend, it is estimated that see more than move will be the main features of macroeconomic policies in recent years.

“We maintain our preliminary view that the second quarter will once kept the quasi-adjustment, there may be an active policy of foreign trade, taxation and other areas of monetary policy as a whole will continue to maintain the current neutral partial width without too easing move. “he said.