Recently, JP Morgan China chief economist, Greater China, Economic Research Department in charge of Zhu Haibin meet in Shanghai media conference that the rapid increase in revenue of China in recent years, market regulation policy continued and the effect is expected to decline in housing prices this year 5% to 10% of first-tier cities fell 10 percent to 15 percent. China’s housing prices or to return to a reasonable level, but the 2013 to 2014 the property market may rebound slightly.2012 China’s economic trends, Zhu Haibin expected 2012 annual CPI will be around 3% slowdown in inflationary pressures, annual GDP growth of 8.4%, the overall trend will show a trend of low to high before the economic slowdown expected to bottomed out in the first quarter, while exports and property will become the two major risks. talking about housing prices, the Zhu Haibin, Chinese prices are indeed too high, but the year is expected to return to a reasonable level. Zhu Haibin, said that the price earnings ratio is a measure of an indicator of house prices is “reasonable”. The statistics, according to JP Morgan Chase, the regulation of real estate began in 2010 price earnings ratio nationwide was 10.6, over 15 first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, this indicator can be described as “unacceptable” level. Market regulation policy, sustained and obvious effect, coupled with China’s recent increase in residents’ annual income fast, this indicator to the end of the country 9.8.
“If next year the government can prevent the prices do not rebound, and the residents’ annual income to maintain a 12% increase over last year, should indicate the year, promising a price earnings ratio back to more normal range because of the fast growth of Chinese income not really need prices to a substantial decline can return to reasonable levels should prevent prices retaliatory rebound in the next few years. “Zhu Haibin expected this year, prices will return to a reasonable level, the national average house prices will fall by 5% -10% first-tier cities prices 10% -15% decline, from 2013 to 2014 the property market may rebound slightly.
said Zhu Haibin, according to the government work report, the market regulation will be ongoing, is to curb speculative investment demand will not relax, but in the meantime may be some policy fine-tuning. The pilot for “property tax” in Shanghai and Chongqing, is widely believe that the real estate tax will replace the purchase of credit limit to be follow-up control measures to inhibit investment demand, said Zhu Haibin do not agree with, he believes the property tax income for the suppression of the Housing Price had little effect, so the real estate tax to replace the purchase of limited credit policy is the wrong approach.
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