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no longer dwell on the theoretical dispute, not to stick to reform and order, confusion, not to mention the international, the yuan off. This time, the international market gradually select the yuan, can be evidence of the increasing number of overseas markets, yuan-denominated products.
recent Chinese central bank, state-owned Administration of Foreign Exchange of the series of actions imply that financial reform is in some way speed. So “relaxed”, perhaps not subject to price controls of the RMB in order to voyage.
At present, the two prices of the RMB is on the eve of reform. The former is the exchange rate, which is the interest rate. Such as the exchange rate volatility doubled, the interest rate market on the agenda. However, the introduction of price reforms related to the macro-control, scholars believe, the only way to control inflation, the price reform in order to make the trip.
central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan recently said that in promoting the interest rate, exchange rate reform, the need for an overall consideration. With the RMB exchange rate floating range of the expansion of the market forces of supply and demand will play a greater role, the central bank is more to intervene in excess when in the market exchange rate fluctuations; In other words, the RMB pricing further give way to the market. Throughout the RMB exchange rate performance, two-way volatility elasticity is significantly enhanced.
However, often a major international conference, the yuan should be a new high unilateral upstream; this is no exception, the central parity rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar in May 2 reported that 6.267 liters of 117 basis points over the previous day, moving up Three days later, the first time exceeded 6.27, the highest in 2005 a new high since the exchange reform.
May 3, 2009, Beijing ushered in the fourth round of Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Promote strong, sustainable and balanced growth; to expand trade and investment opportunities; financial market stability and reform. “Three economic and trade issues of the economic dialogue.
There are experts on that analysis, whether offshore renminbi products trading to reach an agreement, or one of the focus of this round of China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Behind this mystery perhaps, if the United States launched QE3, domestic assets less attractive, the offshore renminbi may become QE3 of the pond. The key is that the offshore renminbi may undertake QE3 scale of how much?
theoretically, in the overseas market, the liquidity generated by QE3 converted into yuan, rather than assets, to benefit both China and the United States. But when several trillion RMB yuan futures market “trading” with 20 times leverage, the FOB price of RMB will be Forced in the CIF price. China’s capital the project has not been fully liberalized, the RMB is not convertible, will inevitably lead to the two prices.
If the offshore renminbi deposits accounted for relatively small, like the end of 2011, RMB deposits in Hong Kong 588.5 billion, accounting for only 1.24% of the Mainland 47.2 trillion yuan of GDP, the central bank is fully capable of controlling prices. However, when the offshore renminbi through the lever to the formation of the huge amount of scale, may contain the territory of RMB; decision-making and do not want to see a similar passive results.
not no such possibility. What it was, in a sense, the international market has begun to accept the gradual relaxation of the yuan; including the end of last year, the yuan-denominated settlement market is gradually increasing. London time on April 18, HSBC launched its first renminbi-denominated bonds in London, the main investors of the United Kingdom and continental European countries, the total is estimated to be 1 billion yuan. In addition, London Metal Exchange (LME) intends to use the RMB-denominated alternative pounds settlement.
In fact, Chinese officials seem to London to issue renminbi bonds market selection, the current launch of the financial reform, unrelated. Moreover, they do not frequently mentioned in the internationalization of RMB – that is the natural market selection; capital account convertibility is the central bank’s ultimate objectives of the reform.
and “cancel restrictions on capital transactions and foreign exchange,” the abolition of exchange restrictions “are broad and narrow definition of capital account convertibility. Among these, some of the points that the interest rate and exchange rate markets is the premise of opening of the capital.
last week, the central bank vice governor, SAFE Yi Gang, the Secretary for the Indianapolis campus of Indiana University speech, said the interest rate reform does not seem so urgent, foreign exchange reform and capital account convertibility is higher priority. The three reforms need to follow the correct order, to be coordinated.
while the central bank research group, said the reform of interest rates, currency markets, capital account convertibility has order, need to be coordinated; Zhou Xiaochuan said that the conditional market-oriented interest rate reform to move forward; but the real push forward, also need to overcome these difficulties. Scholars believe that the reform of the difficulty and risk depends on the internal and external capital controls degree of market segmentation.
In any case, despite the controversy, although it is difficult to clarify the reform, the order and timing of the dispute, the yuan has been “going out. Moreover, from the trading of yuan-denominated products on the international market, better, the yuan trade settlement with yuan bond trading increase the “phenomena such as view, is good news. However, the uncertainty is that once the RMB outside the scale is too large, the central bank may be impossible to price stability. In fact, the control and management of interest rate, exchange rate market is the common practice of global central bank.
yuan “starting” the path and right, then the rhythm and pace to see the advance is targeted at ease.
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